I see a hierarchy of decision-making levels, roughly as follows from "lowest" to "highest:
The search vessel Seabed Constructor has just arrived in the new search area, outfitted with a team of eight autonomous underwater vehicles AUVs.
Included in that area are three locations that CSIRO has identified as high priority, as determined from satellite images of floating objects and complex drift models. We think it is possible to identify a most likely location of the aircraft, with unprecedented precision and certainty.
This location is I performed a statistical analysis of previous log-on events that occurred on March 7,including those that occurred on flight MH from Beijing to Kuala Lumpur. The procedure was briefly described in a previous comment of mine. These might serve as limits for some parts of the search.
If not found in the initial 25, square kilometer area, the contract with Ocean Infinity indicates that the search will continue further northeast along the 7th arc.
Likely, the search will continue along the 7th arc as far northeast as time and weather permit. I often get asked whether I believe this search will succeed in finding the wreckage of MH I long ago arrived at the conclusion that based on the evidence we have, it is impossible to determine any one location with a high level of certainty, and I stopped trying.
The satellite data and the drift models allow a broad range of possible impact sites. So, it becomes a numbers game—the more area searched, the higher probability of finding the wreckage.
It might take another 18 hours to analyze the data. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2. Both comments and pings are currently closed. I guess that with the rate Seabed Constructor can scan, we will find out relatively quickly whether they are looking in the right place.
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